2005 TOTAL: 323-287-11 (53.0%) +33.49 UNITS
2004 TOTAL: 204-148-4 (58.0%) +59.92 UNITS
OVERALL TO DATE: 527-435-21 (54.8%) +93.41 UNITS
TODAY'S PICKS
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
LYON (pk) -115 over Real Madrid (460/400) Olympic
Zidane is definitely out for Real Madrid and Ronaldo is suspended. Other players that are doubtful for Real Madrid are Beckham, Raul and Pavon. Lyon plays well at home and against a weakened Real Madrid, it is very possible for Lyon to win this match.
3 Team Parlay (300/325) Olympic
CHELSEA -575 over Anderlecht
AC MILAN -400 over Fenerbahce
INTER MILAN -240 over Artmedia Bratislava
Huge difference in class for all 3 of these matches. Chelsea and AC Milan are both playing at home and should win easily with a clean sheet. Inter is playing away but Bratislava is a very weak team and they will not be able to contain Adriano, who should score at least once today.
ENGLAND LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP
PRESTON (-0.75) +105 over Burnley (200/210) Pinnacle
LEEDS UNITED (pk) -120 over Sheffield Wednesday (240/200) Olympic
2004 TOTAL: 204-148-4 (58.0%) +59.92 UNITS
OVERALL TO DATE: 527-435-21 (54.8%) +93.41 UNITS
TODAY'S PICKS
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
LYON (pk) -115 over Real Madrid (460/400) Olympic
Zidane is definitely out for Real Madrid and Ronaldo is suspended. Other players that are doubtful for Real Madrid are Beckham, Raul and Pavon. Lyon plays well at home and against a weakened Real Madrid, it is very possible for Lyon to win this match.
3 Team Parlay (300/325) Olympic
CHELSEA -575 over Anderlecht
AC MILAN -400 over Fenerbahce
INTER MILAN -240 over Artmedia Bratislava
Huge difference in class for all 3 of these matches. Chelsea and AC Milan are both playing at home and should win easily with a clean sheet. Inter is playing away but Bratislava is a very weak team and they will not be able to contain Adriano, who should score at least once today.
ENGLAND LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP
PRESTON (-0.75) +105 over Burnley (200/210) Pinnacle
LEEDS UNITED (pk) -120 over Sheffield Wednesday (240/200) Olympic
Big time due for a big time day Mark. Only one I don't know about about here are in the parlays.
Definitely think you're at least on a push side here with Lyon. Worst case is probably 1-1. With Real's leaky D, Lyon might be able to put through 2. Real not playing with shits like Albecete anymore, and they know that a draw in this situation is just fine with plenty of matches to go in the groups. Lyon will be ready because they really need 3 points if they expect to win this group.
Chelsea and Milan will both win 1 or 2 to nil, though I can see AC Milan destroying a lot of people in this competition after last year's debacle...
Bratislava has only allowed 1 goal at home in this competition and have 2 wins vs 1 draw and no losses. This is the type of dipshit team that pulls some upsets and gets into the knockout stage, and in a group that only features Rangers, Porto, and Inter Milan, 3 points here could put Bratislava in a big time drivers' seat. I'd be inclined to take the goal start with the home side and hope that they look more like the team that beat Celtic 5-0 at home instead of the team that lost to Celtic 4-0 away... When this team hits the road in this group they'll get killed... but I'd be weary of the home matches.
The other is Olympiakos against Rosenborg... Dunno how you can lay money either way with this team. They show some absolute flashes of brilliance in the Tippelegean for 45 minutes at a time, such as when they went up 2-1 at Viking over the weekend, only to blow the lead late, and then blow the draw right at the end, losing 3-2. They're obviously not the cream of anything anymore, but somehow this team fought their way into the group stages of this tournament, and again feature a potentially weak group if Real has so many injuries. I really know nothing about this Olympiakos team, but I'd be afraid of those two. Aside from that the card looks great.
By the way, I give UEFA credit for not making a total dipshit group in this tournament, but who's idea was it to put Chelsea and Liverpool in the same group anyway? I mean most of these groups it sure looks like you can pencil in the advancers, but this is the Champions League and weird shit can, has, and surely will happen. Lemme know when Bratislava goes through to the knockout round..... That'd be just as bad as the Porto/Monaco final two years ago.
Definitely think you're at least on a push side here with Lyon. Worst case is probably 1-1. With Real's leaky D, Lyon might be able to put through 2. Real not playing with shits like Albecete anymore, and they know that a draw in this situation is just fine with plenty of matches to go in the groups. Lyon will be ready because they really need 3 points if they expect to win this group.
Chelsea and Milan will both win 1 or 2 to nil, though I can see AC Milan destroying a lot of people in this competition after last year's debacle...
Bratislava has only allowed 1 goal at home in this competition and have 2 wins vs 1 draw and no losses. This is the type of dipshit team that pulls some upsets and gets into the knockout stage, and in a group that only features Rangers, Porto, and Inter Milan, 3 points here could put Bratislava in a big time drivers' seat. I'd be inclined to take the goal start with the home side and hope that they look more like the team that beat Celtic 5-0 at home instead of the team that lost to Celtic 4-0 away... When this team hits the road in this group they'll get killed... but I'd be weary of the home matches.
The other is Olympiakos against Rosenborg... Dunno how you can lay money either way with this team. They show some absolute flashes of brilliance in the Tippelegean for 45 minutes at a time, such as when they went up 2-1 at Viking over the weekend, only to blow the lead late, and then blow the draw right at the end, losing 3-2. They're obviously not the cream of anything anymore, but somehow this team fought their way into the group stages of this tournament, and again feature a potentially weak group if Real has so many injuries. I really know nothing about this Olympiakos team, but I'd be afraid of those two. Aside from that the card looks great.
By the way, I give UEFA credit for not making a total dipshit group in this tournament, but who's idea was it to put Chelsea and Liverpool in the same group anyway? I mean most of these groups it sure looks like you can pencil in the advancers, but this is the Champions League and weird shit can, has, and surely will happen. Lemme know when Bratislava goes through to the knockout round..... That'd be just as bad as the Porto/Monaco final two years ago.
Thanks for the comments, Guru. They are always appreciated.
Bratislava played the game of their lives against Celtic in that 5-0 debacle and Celtic were a very confused bunch with a new coach, new tactics, new formations and several new players. The truth about Bratislava is that they have a bad defence and defence is ALL they will play today. These defensive tactics may have worked against teams like Kairat Almaty, Partizan and a confused Celtic side but it will not work against a world class team like Inter. Adriano is going to trample the defence of this minnow, Bratislava, and they will be exposed for what they are, a very lucky team that has caught lightning in a bottle but whose luck has run out.
Unlike previous seasons the skill level between Olympiacos and Rosenborg is vast. Rosenborg have an aging defence that has lost a step and will not be able to keep up with the pace of players like Rivaldo, Djordjevic, Stoltidis, Georgatos and Toure for Olympiacos. Also, domestic form for these teams is polar opposites. Rosenborg have lost 5 in-a-row in Norway and are in danger of relegation. Their coach has openly stated that Chamions League is not a priority for them and that Rosenborg will concentrate their efforts toward surviving in the Tippeligaen. On the other hand, Olympiacos have gotten off to a tremendous start in Greece coming off of a 2-0 win in front of 60,000 fans AWAY at Panathinaikos and a 5-0 win at home over Panionios. Something else to consider here is that Olympiacos will be playing at home in front of their home fans for the first time this year due to fan trouble near the end of last season, so the home stadium in Athens will be rocking. I have heard that the Rosenborg players' only concern travelling to Greece is how many greek goodies will they be able to fit in their suitcases for the return flight home.
Bratislava played the game of their lives against Celtic in that 5-0 debacle and Celtic were a very confused bunch with a new coach, new tactics, new formations and several new players. The truth about Bratislava is that they have a bad defence and defence is ALL they will play today. These defensive tactics may have worked against teams like Kairat Almaty, Partizan and a confused Celtic side but it will not work against a world class team like Inter. Adriano is going to trample the defence of this minnow, Bratislava, and they will be exposed for what they are, a very lucky team that has caught lightning in a bottle but whose luck has run out.
Unlike previous seasons the skill level between Olympiacos and Rosenborg is vast. Rosenborg have an aging defence that has lost a step and will not be able to keep up with the pace of players like Rivaldo, Djordjevic, Stoltidis, Georgatos and Toure for Olympiacos. Also, domestic form for these teams is polar opposites. Rosenborg have lost 5 in-a-row in Norway and are in danger of relegation. Their coach has openly stated that Chamions League is not a priority for them and that Rosenborg will concentrate their efforts toward surviving in the Tippeligaen. On the other hand, Olympiacos have gotten off to a tremendous start in Greece coming off of a 2-0 win in front of 60,000 fans AWAY at Panathinaikos and a 5-0 win at home over Panionios. Something else to consider here is that Olympiacos will be playing at home in front of their home fans for the first time this year due to fan trouble near the end of last season, so the home stadium in Athens will be rocking. I have heard that the Rosenborg players' only concern travelling to Greece is how many greek goodies will they be able to fit in their suitcases for the return flight home.
Hey Guru, any thoughts on the League Championship match today between Watford and Norwich. Huckerby is still suspended and Watford have been scoring goals in bunches lately (11 Goals For and only 3 Against in their last 5 matches). Pinnacle are offering +145 for a Watford Win. Any information you could offer would be greatly appreciated.
I think Norwich is closer to League 1 than they are the Premiership... Sorry I didn't get back to you, but I would have told you that I really had no opinion... haven't spoken to bossman in awhile... he doesn't want to talk about Norwich football anymore with as bad as they're playing.
Bratislava played a lot better at home then I think you imagined, though Inter played Inter style soccer today... go up 1-0 and just cling to the lead.
Real just gets hammered by Lyon... 3 goals was even a shock to me. I figured at best Lyon was winning 3-0. Glad to see you back in the black today though. If only Olympiakos could have come through for you...
Perhaps this year's dipshit is going to be Rosenborg though. This team just finds ways to turn it on. I mean they're not going to take out Lyon, not by a long shot... but if Real is still banged up through the bulk of this qualifying, look out... Rosenborg could be in for a meeting with AC Milan in the 2nd round... of course, Milan would win that at least 5-1 on aggregate, but we won't mention that...
Bratislava played a lot better at home then I think you imagined, though Inter played Inter style soccer today... go up 1-0 and just cling to the lead.
Real just gets hammered by Lyon... 3 goals was even a shock to me. I figured at best Lyon was winning 3-0. Glad to see you back in the black today though. If only Olympiakos could have come through for you...
Perhaps this year's dipshit is going to be Rosenborg though. This team just finds ways to turn it on. I mean they're not going to take out Lyon, not by a long shot... but if Real is still banged up through the bulk of this qualifying, look out... Rosenborg could be in for a meeting with AC Milan in the 2nd round... of course, Milan would win that at least 5-1 on aggregate, but we won't mention that...
Rosenborg were VERY lucky to win this game. Olympiacos carried the play for most of the game. A score of 3-1 looks like a solid win, especially on the road, but this scoreline paints an UNREAL picture of how things actually went. Here are some stats for you:
TOTAL SHOTS: 23 (OLY) - 5 (ROS)
SHOTS ON TARGET: 13 (OLY) - 3 (ROS) and 3 goals, that sucks.
FOULS COMMITTED: 5 (OLY) - 19 (ROS)
CORNERS: 13 (OLY) - 3 (ROS)
BALL POSSESSION: 61% (OLY) - 39% (ROS)
Olympiacos dominated this match. If not for the ABSOLUTELY INCREDIBLE play of the Rosenborg goal keeper, this game could have ended with a score of 8-3. There were at least 6 times when Olympiacos had the ball in the back of the net (so you thought) and then the Rosenborg goalie would make an IMPOSSIBLE Super-Human save. UNBELIEVABLE.
My day was actually better "unofficially" since I did make a play on Watford. Very much like Notts Forest in League One, Norwich City is quickly becoming the laughing stock in the Championship.
Do you have any opinions for tomorrow's Champions League match-ups? The 3 that jump out at me immediately are Juventus over Club Brugge, Bayern Munich over Rapid and Udinese over Panathinaikos.
TOTAL SHOTS: 23 (OLY) - 5 (ROS)
SHOTS ON TARGET: 13 (OLY) - 3 (ROS) and 3 goals, that sucks.
FOULS COMMITTED: 5 (OLY) - 19 (ROS)
CORNERS: 13 (OLY) - 3 (ROS)
BALL POSSESSION: 61% (OLY) - 39% (ROS)
Olympiacos dominated this match. If not for the ABSOLUTELY INCREDIBLE play of the Rosenborg goal keeper, this game could have ended with a score of 8-3. There were at least 6 times when Olympiacos had the ball in the back of the net (so you thought) and then the Rosenborg goalie would make an IMPOSSIBLE Super-Human save. UNBELIEVABLE.
My day was actually better "unofficially" since I did make a play on Watford. Very much like Notts Forest in League One, Norwich City is quickly becoming the laughing stock in the Championship.
Do you have any opinions for tomorrow's Champions League match-ups? The 3 that jump out at me immediately are Juventus over Club Brugge, Bayern Munich over Rapid and Udinese over Panathinaikos.
Just a general thought about tomorrow... upsets... lots of the "name" teams are hitting the road, and at this stage of the tournament, 3 points for these underdog teams at home leaves a strong sense of hope in pulling an upset and qualifying. Please remember that I am not by any means a soccer expert, nor can name players on all of the teams in the tournament. Just basing things off of history and stats at hand.
Arsenal will roll Thun for certain, but aside from that, Club Brugge looks juicy at +1 with the way that Juve dicks around in qualifying... another team content to play at 1-0 the entire way. A draw is very possible in this one. Rapid Wien has shown in the past that they have the firepower to beat some of the big teams... just ask Liverpool last year, who I believe suffered their only defeat of the tournament at the hands of Rapid Wien. Bayern Munich is clearly superior, but I wouldn't lay -0.75 or -1 on the road in this tournament. Nothing would really surprise me in this match. Praha/Ajax is a suck fest. Neither of these teams have any business qualifying, but I'd imagine if there's a "road" upset in the cards tomorrow, it's on Ajax. Werder Bremen has a decent shot of taking points hosting Barcelona, no matter how mighty the Spanish side is. Their counterparts of Real proved no match for Lyon today, though Real was fielding an awfully depleted side... still shouldn't lose 3-0 at this point in the competition. Man U also dicks around during these competitions, though their start to the Premiership has gone about as well as could be expected, still spotless in the loss column. They are the superior team to Villareal and Man U seems to be an alright selection at the pk line. 0-0 or 1-1 draw is still likely, but the team more capable of winning this match is Man U.
I'll say this... someone's going to pull the upset and take 3 points tomorrow, and it wouldn't surprise me if two of the three teams I mentioned before did it. Juve and Barcelona are capable to be bounced, and I think it's been proven time and time again in this tournament that the cream isn't always the most successful... Though some of the stranger things happen at the knockout stage, very rarely at this point of the tournament will a team run through to qualifying spotless, particularly on the road. Just be careful laying road chalk, as from what it sounded like, Bratislava was very very close to a 1-1 successful result to Inter this afternoon, particularly once the Italian side were reduced to 10 men.
Arsenal will roll Thun for certain, but aside from that, Club Brugge looks juicy at +1 with the way that Juve dicks around in qualifying... another team content to play at 1-0 the entire way. A draw is very possible in this one. Rapid Wien has shown in the past that they have the firepower to beat some of the big teams... just ask Liverpool last year, who I believe suffered their only defeat of the tournament at the hands of Rapid Wien. Bayern Munich is clearly superior, but I wouldn't lay -0.75 or -1 on the road in this tournament. Nothing would really surprise me in this match. Praha/Ajax is a suck fest. Neither of these teams have any business qualifying, but I'd imagine if there's a "road" upset in the cards tomorrow, it's on Ajax. Werder Bremen has a decent shot of taking points hosting Barcelona, no matter how mighty the Spanish side is. Their counterparts of Real proved no match for Lyon today, though Real was fielding an awfully depleted side... still shouldn't lose 3-0 at this point in the competition. Man U also dicks around during these competitions, though their start to the Premiership has gone about as well as could be expected, still spotless in the loss column. They are the superior team to Villareal and Man U seems to be an alright selection at the pk line. 0-0 or 1-1 draw is still likely, but the team more capable of winning this match is Man U.
I'll say this... someone's going to pull the upset and take 3 points tomorrow, and it wouldn't surprise me if two of the three teams I mentioned before did it. Juve and Barcelona are capable to be bounced, and I think it's been proven time and time again in this tournament that the cream isn't always the most successful... Though some of the stranger things happen at the knockout stage, very rarely at this point of the tournament will a team run through to qualifying spotless, particularly on the road. Just be careful laying road chalk, as from what it sounded like, Bratislava was very very close to a 1-1 successful result to Inter this afternoon, particularly once the Italian side were reduced to 10 men.
I think if an upset is going to happen it will be Werder Bremen over Barcelona. A few places are offering Bremen +0.5 at around -125. I hear what you're saying about Juventus but Brugge have big problems. They will be missing 5 starters tomorrow, among them are Verheyen, team captain (Suspended), Klukowski (Injured), Clement (Injured), Butina, 1st team goalkeeper (Sick) and Lange (Injured). This long injury list combined with Juventus' quality (especially at mid-field) spells out an AWAY WIN to me.
With the exception of Ballack, Bayern Munich will travel with a fully fit squad. I do think that Bayern will win this game but the OVER 2.5 (-115) might be an even better bet. As for Ajax vs. Sparta, I cannot shake the thought of a 0-0 or 1-1 draw as their is not much to choose between these teams and neither of them pack much of a scoring punch at this level of play. Ajax (pk) -105 is on offer at Olympic and it might be the best bet for this match.
I think Man U has the upper hand travelling to Spain. Villareal will be missing their heart and soul player, Riquelme, as he is injured and will not play. Villareal have not shown much in the first 2 games in the Primera, whereas Man U have not lost in the EPL and have conceded only 1 goal in 4 matches. Each team does have an x-factor, however. For Man U it will be the return of Ronaldo who is travelling with the team to Spain after being absent due to the death of his father. He could be inspired to play one of the best games of his career or his grief may make him totally ineffective. For Villareal it is Diego Forlan who will be playing against his former club and will certainly have more bounce in his step for this game. With all this being said, I still like Manchester United on the level ball. Man U (pk) -115 is on offer at Pinnacle and I think it is a safe bet.
With the exception of Ballack, Bayern Munich will travel with a fully fit squad. I do think that Bayern will win this game but the OVER 2.5 (-115) might be an even better bet. As for Ajax vs. Sparta, I cannot shake the thought of a 0-0 or 1-1 draw as their is not much to choose between these teams and neither of them pack much of a scoring punch at this level of play. Ajax (pk) -105 is on offer at Olympic and it might be the best bet for this match.
I think Man U has the upper hand travelling to Spain. Villareal will be missing their heart and soul player, Riquelme, as he is injured and will not play. Villareal have not shown much in the first 2 games in the Primera, whereas Man U have not lost in the EPL and have conceded only 1 goal in 4 matches. Each team does have an x-factor, however. For Man U it will be the return of Ronaldo who is travelling with the team to Spain after being absent due to the death of his father. He could be inspired to play one of the best games of his career or his grief may make him totally ineffective. For Villareal it is Diego Forlan who will be playing against his former club and will certainly have more bounce in his step for this game. With all this being said, I still like Manchester United on the level ball. Man U (pk) -115 is on offer at Pinnacle and I think it is a safe bet.
